Hamas Started the War; Hamas Continues the War.
Blaming Israel, even now as Hamas refuses to follow the Peace Plan, makes no sense
On October 7, 2023, Hamas sent roughly 3,000 militants into Israel to kill, burn, rape, torture, and kidnap civilians. The attack itself was shocking, but in a sense not surprising. Hamas’s motives were well known and remain the same today. By looking at both how Hamas started the war and how they refuse to move forward in the Peace Plan from January, we can clarify a lot.
A certain self-styled “Progressive” narrative is that Hamas had to do it: after years of hardship, “resistance” was both justified and inevitable. October 7 was, in this eschatology, an unavoidable result and the Jews are actually at fault.
History says otherwise. Occupations, wars, and atrocities have occurred throughout history without having the victims burn families or rape children. The Jews themselves suffered immensely at the hands of the Nazis, but no Jewish person ever raped a German child after the war in response.
It makes more sense to look at Hamas’s objectives than colonial theory explanations or justifications.
Those objectives were neither hidden nor complicated:
Disrupt emerging peace agreements between Israel and Arab states.
Create a state of “permanent” war with the Arabs.
Generate propaganda that would bend international opinion against Israel and her supporters.
Trade Israeli hostages for Hamas prisoners and convicts.
Advance the foundational goal of eliminating Israel.
Permanent War
These goals for October 7 are endemic to Hamas, but the timing was more urgent.
At the time of the attack, negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia were advancing, with some observers suggesting a normalization agreement within weeks.
For Hamas, that was anathema. Every successful peace agreement made Israel appear permanent, reasonable, and durable in the Middle East. A stable regional order would be the the exact opposite of Jihad.
Hamas leaders did not exactly hide this; they were open and explicit about their desire for a “permanent” war in an interview with the NY Times.
Propaganda
Hamas obviously did not expect 3,000 lightly-armed fighters to conquer a country of ten million people.
But they did know it would trigger a massive response. And they knew that war would continue until Israeli hostages were returned or re-captured. A long war predictably produces a constant stream of images, videos, and headlines that can be used to mobilize international opinion against Israel. And it did.
In that respect, Hamas achieved one of its central goals.
Consider how easy it is, numerically. A two year war (or however long) predictably produces a dozen images of destruction, displacement, injury, and death every day. Holding out for 734 days produced thousands of images and stories. On slow days, or days when cameras did not capture good footage, staged videos apparently stood in for real suffering.
Today’s internet dynamics leverages the emotional shock that graphic wartime imagery naturally evokes, and interacted with an antizionist, transnational ecosystem that had been developing for decades across activist networks, NGOs, segments of academia, prestige media, progressive movements, Islamist organizations, and states such as Russia and China who share an interest in delegitimizing Israel. These actors did not create public outrage, but they did channel and amplify it through an antizionist framework. We see this with establishment of terms and framing such as the genocide narrative.
Prisoner Release
Hamas also had reason to believe that large-scale kidnappings could produce a significant prisoner exchange.
In 2011, Israel traded more than 1,000 prisoners for a single Israeli soldier held by Hamas. One of those released was Yahya Sinwar, who later became the principal architect of October 7. He knew many convicted terrorists personally, and had lived experience of the hostage-for-prisoner mechanism.
Hostage-taking had already proven effective, so why not increase it 100 fold?
To some extent, that calculation proved correct — but not really. Israel has now passed a new law that terrorists who actually kill people will be executed instead of imprisoned. After 75 years of no executions in Israel, Sinwar’s dark calculus has won out, but resulted in worse outcomes for Islamic terror convicts, not better.
Refusing the Peace Plan
Perhaps the most revealing question is why Hamas continues to resist the Peace Plan that will end it. This could all be over tomorrow if Hamas would prioritize peace over violence.
Nothing shows the blatant disregard for the lives and well-being of Gazans than Hamas’s constant, daily refusal to leave power and allow a new chapter to begin.
The peace framework negotiated in January has three phases. Phase I is complete, and the hostages are home in Israel (or bodies returned or extracted by the IDF), and active hostilities very much reduced if not totally ended.
Hamas dragged their feet on Phase I, requiring Israel to physically go in to recover a few bodies. Now for Phase II, Hamas must take even bolder actions to disarm and relinquish power. They unfortunately refuse to do so, with Gazans paying the price.
In Phase II, as Hamas disarms and hands control to a new, Muslim, International Stabilization Force, reconstruction funding will be released. New governing institutions will oversee rebuilding efforts and economic development. A full $17B are already allocated for reconstruction. Regrettably, none of the parties will invest in Gaza if Hamas remains in power, ready to attack or start a new conflict, so there is no way around their disarmament.
Instead, Gazans are suffering terribly with many in tents and lacking even basic medical care and support. This can all be over tomorrow. Why not?
The cold reality is that a rebuilt Gaza, under international governance would weaken Hamas even as it strengthen’s Gaza overall. Politically, reconstruction will redirect attention away from conflict towards peace. A durable peace will move the region in the opposite direction from Hamas’s long-term objective, and contradict the idea of Jihad as the best path forward.
Hamas Is Key
Many discussions of the war painted a narrative that justifies support for Hamas. But now? As Hamas daily repeats the same decision to harm Gazans in the name of Jihadi violence?
From the start, Hamas sacrificed Gazans for their extremist aims, but there was at least some debate. Gaza was said to be an “open air prison” and “resistance justified.”
But now, who is still advocating for Hamas… and why? The endgame clarifies the beginning. For Hamas and their supporters, peace was never the goal. Eradication of Israel is, was and always will be.
The only path forward for decent people is to shift. We must now isolate Hamas and pressure them to accept Phase II of the Peace Plan. If international actors, NGOs, media and the UN won’t do it, Israel will physically isolate them in a shrinking zone, defeat them militarily where possible, and at best rebuild only Hamas-free areas. That will be a much harder path for everyone involved.